Buy Ariana Resources

In: Tips

17 May 2011

Ariana Resources – New Higher Grade Vein System Discovered at Kiziltepe. Buy at 4.375p – Target Price 10.3p

Ariana Resources has today announced that a new vein system has been discovered at Kiziltepe, which is the sector of the flagship Red Rabbit Project in Turkey where gold production is set to begin next year. What has been discovered is the presence of a further gold bearing vein system, named the Gamze Vein, with continuous high grade up to 10.7g/t gold equivalent. Geophysics suggests that the Gamze together with the previously discovered Fidan Vein systems are connected within the same mineralised structure with a combined strike length of 1,800 metres. On top of that, there is strong continuity with the existing high-grade gold bearing vein systems which all seems to add up to potential to expand the current 448,000 ounce gold equivalent JORC resource for Red Rabbit. Certainly any increased resource would further improve the economics of mining at Kiziltepe.

The results of the Scoping Study announced in early April 2011, showed that the Kiziltepe Sector of Red Rabbit Project was economically robust. The study investigated the economics of a 150,000 tonnes per annum producing 20,000 ounces of gold equivalent per year. The combined resource in the preliminary optimised pits was put at 1 million tonnes with an average grade of 3.6g/t gold and 41.6g/t silver; and so a mine life of just under seven years. The Net Present Value (8%) came out at $56.2 million and an IRR of 75.9% using base case gold price of $1,350 an ounce and silver at $20 per ounce. Cash costs were estimated in the range of $441-$472 per ounce across the life of the project. In light of the new high grade vein discovery at Kiziltepe, it could be that Ariana now has a vastly improved project on its hands.

The Red Rabbit Project is exhibiting some good grades and widths. The veins are about 4 to 5 metres wide with a halo of lower mineralisation that takes the width to around 13 metres in places, with the vein containing grades of 4.1 g/t gold plus 40 – 50 g/t silver with lower grade material in the halo running at 1.6 g/t gold and 25 – 35 g/t silver. The Kiziltepe and Tavsan Sectors sport differing geology but both look to offer the scope for a substantial increase in resources. Mining will begin first at the higher grade Kiziltepe Sector where there are 45 kilometres of quartz veins but so far the resource has only been defined on just 20% of the veins and then only down to a depth of about 100 metres. It’s a similar story in the Tavsan Sector where resource definition has been limited to merely 20% of the 8 kilometres of gold mineralisation. There seems clear scope to add significant value by further growth in the JORC resource.

Progress at Red Rabbit has been fairly swift, helped by Ariana’s local joint venture partner, the Turkish construction group Proccea Construction Co, which is earning a 50% stake in the project by spending US$8 million. Proccea specialises in the designing and commissioning of gold and silver processing plants and has worked on such projects not just in Turkey but also in Kazakhstan, Algeria, Finland, Argentina and Saudi Arabia. Proccea is essentially financing the project beyond the construction decision stage which will leave the partners needing to find US$18 million out of the estimated US$25 million capital cost to put the project into production. The intention is to project finance the remaining US$18 million and discussions have already begun with lenders both in Turkey and internationally.

Just as one project accelerates towards the production phase, the management is pursuing well-priced acquisitions with the goal of building a mid-tier multi-project gold exploration and development company. Turkey is an enormous country, which is highly prospective for a variety of metals as well as gold, and, sensibly, the directors have chosen to make progress via joint ventures that allow others to fund exploration and share the risk. Ariana has a joint venture deal with European Goldfields that covers north-eastern Turkey where early work has focused on the Ardala copper-gold porphyry and adjoining tenements in Artvin Province. The Ardala Project contains exposed parts of a 600 metre by 700 metre porphyry drilled in the early 1990’s which defined a non-JORC resource of 20 million tonnes of 0.25% copper and 0.45 g/t gold and 65 ppm molybdenum. Highly impressive drilling results from the nearby Salinbas prospect were announced in November 2010, which persuaded the partners to extend the drilling programme.

During the past twelve months gold mining stocks have been driven higher on the back of a rising gold price but Ariana seems to have been left behind and now begs the attention of investors . This latest news only serves to further highlight the valuation anomaly for this, fully funded enterprise. We continue to recommend the shares as a buy at 4.375p with a target price of 10.3p as the company moves decisively closer to gold production and a potential increase in the resources base. It has to be pointed out that our assessment has placed no valuation on the joint venture with European Goldfields, the Company’s own regional exploration program or the holding in Tigris Resources both of which could, in due course, add materially to our valuation.

Forecast Table

Year to 31st
December
Sales
(£000)
Pre-tax Profit
(£000)
Earnings Per Share (p) Price Earnings
Ratio (x)
Dividend
(p)
Yield
(%)
2007A 0 (451) (0.84) NA 0.0 0.0
2008A 0 (604) (0.71) NA 0.0 0.0
2009A 0 (402) (0.27) NA 0.0 0.0
2010E 0 (400) (0.18) NA 0.0 0.0
 

Key Data

EPIC AAU
Share Price 4.625p
Spread 4.25p – 5p
Total no of Shares 250,965,008
NMS 20,000
Market Cap £10.98 million
12 Month Range 2.125p – 5.5p
Market AIM
Website www.arianaresources.com
Sector Mining
Contact Dr. Kerim Sener, Managing Director – 0770 901 1954

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